SUWANEE TALK!

I am trying a different approach for the month of December. The charts in this report I have created through Trendgraphix, Inc. This will enable you to not only see the Atlanta real estate market activity for December 2010 vs. December 2009 but it will also allow you to see the trending that has taken place throughout 2010. 

And the voices are many as we jump start 2011. And, they are not necessarily singing in unison - no big surprise! I have decided it is like looking into a crystal ball. There are so many facets which will play into fueling the recovery of the housing market so it makes sense predictions are just that....predictions! And, each real estate market is different and every market has been impacted differently.

According to Dan Forsman, CEO of Prudential Gerogia Realty, Atlanta real estate prices did not go up like Florida or Arizona. We did not see a flood of speculators buying properties.  But instead the Atlanta market has been hampered by the new homes bubble, large number of foreclosures and short sales and a reduction of buying activity.  The Atlanta market had consistently been at the top of the list for the new homes market - topping in 2006. Smart Numbers (Marietta GA) noted that the new homes market was headed for trouble in the spring of 2006 due to the increse of lot costs thus causing new home pricing to start rising quickly while builders margins were shrinking. Plus the easy qualifying for buyers and down payment assistance programs allowed buyers to keep paying these higher prices. Thus, the bubble continued to build. As the market slowed, aggressive pricing from resales and foreclosures made it difficult for builders to compete. By 2009 new home starts were down over 80% from peak levels. Realty Trac projected Georgia ranked 7th in the nation for foreclosures; with pre-foreclosures running around 10,000 month average with more to come. What we can all agree upon is: "There is no place but up..."  

What I can tell you driving around my market area of Gwinnett, Forsyth, Hall and Fulton counties....I am seeing new construction starts. Who would have thought. No doubt these starts are NOT vigorous. It is evident that the builders are stepping lightly and cautiously. One community I was in today, the Builder, Acadia Homes , has bought the lots left by Bowen Homes. There are two inventory homes completed with no starts coming out of the ground. And, as I understand from a homeowner, the homes have been completed for two months.  I see the same process with Ryland Homes. They have several communities - about 14 communities - in the metro area. But they also are building slowly and cautiously. Beazer Homes is also another one with new starts in the area. The pattern I see: Track builders are stepping out into the metro Atlanta real estate market but the custom builders are no where to be seen. 

So let's look back. The report you will be looking at, as I mentioned, is generated from Trendgraphix, Inc. I have each of the screens reflecting from December 2009 THROUGH December 2010. This format will allow you to see the trending for 2010. Let me know what you think.

 

DECEMBER 2010

DETACHED

 

 **FORECLOSURES   (NUMBER OF HOMES) -
 December 2009  vs December 2010 (Not reflected in chart above)

• (Dec, 2009)  3,787 vs. 4,158 (Dec, 2010) 
• For Sale: ^9.8%
• Sold:  v21.5% 
  

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month Curnt vs. Prev 13 Months Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago   Dec. 10 Nov. 10 % Change Dec. 10 Dec. 09 % Change Dec. 10 Dec. 09 % Change For Sale 35642 36659 -2.8% 35642 35321 0.9% 35642 35321 0.9% Sold 3023 2864 5.6% 3023 3480 -13.1% 3023 3480 -13.1% Pended 3130 3381 -7.4% 3130 2887 8.4% 3130 2887 8.4%

Date 12/09 1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10 For Sale 35321 35251 36245 37800 38901 39158 40490 40043 39531 38679 37648 36659 35642 Sold 3480 2267 2830 3903 4190 4244 4429 3407 3499 3217 3087 2864 3023 Pended 2887 3261 3715 4957 6113 2960 3525 3644 3673 3475 3352 3381 3130 Months of Inventory (Closed Sales) 10.1 15.5 12.8 9.7 9.3 9.2 9.1 11.8 11.3 12 12.2 12.8 11.8 Months of Inventory (Pended Sales) 12.2 10.8 9.8 7.6 6.4 13.2 11.5 11 10.8 11.1 11.2 10.8 11.4 Absorption Rate (Closed Sales) % 9.9 6.4 7.8 10.3 10.8 10.8 10.9 8.5 8.9 8.3 8.2 7.8 8.5 Absorption Rate (Pended Sales) % 8.2 9.3 10.2 13.1 15.7 7.6 8.7 9.1 9.3 9 8.9 9.2 8.8 Avg. Active Price 341 337 336 336 343 341 333 320 314 310 305 299 289 Avg. Sold Price 200 188 184 195 200 209 213 223 204 191 191 189 202 Avg. Sq. Ft. Price 82 80 79 82 83 87 86 87 82 81 76 77 79 Sold/List Diff. % 94 94 94 94 94 95 94 94 94 94 93 94 93 Sold/Orig LP Diff. % 87 87 81 88 89 90 89 88 88 87 86 86 86 Days on Market 89 90 89 87 86 81 83 79 81 84 84 87 89 Avg CDOM 157 144 109 116 133 122 122 127 130 134 135 137 135 Median 150 141 140 145 152 160 158 157 150 139 138 135 143

            

 

**FORECLOSURES  (AVERAGE PRICE PER SQUARE FOOT)-
December 2009 vs December 2010 (Not reflected in chart above)

• (December 2009) $62/sq ft     vs    $58/sq ft  (December 2010)
• Change:  v 5.5%

 

Curnt vs. Prev Month Curnt vs. Prev 13 Months Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago   Dec. 10 Nov. 10 % Change Dec. 10 Dec. 09 % Change Dec. 10 Dec. 09 % Change Avg. Sq. Ft. Price 79 77 2.7% 79 82 -3.8% 79 82 -3.8%

Date 12/09 1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10 For Sale 35321 35251 36245 37800 38901 39158 40490 40043 39531 38679 37648 36659 35642 Sold 3480 2267 2830 3903 4190 4244 4429 3407 3499 3217 3087 2864 3023 Pended 2887 3261 3715 4957 6113 2960 3525 3644 3673 3475 3352 3381 3130 Months of Inventory (Closed Sales) 10.1 15.5 12.8 9.7 9.3 9.2 9.1 11.8 11.3 12 12.2 12.8 11.8 Months of Inventory (Pended Sales) 12.2 10.8 9.8 7.6 6.4 13.2 11.5 11 10.8 11.1 11.2 10.8 11.4 Absorption Rate (Closed Sales) % 9.9 6.4 7.8 10.3 10.8 10.8 10.9 8.5 8.9 8.3 8.2 7.8 8.5 Absorption Rate (Pended Sales) % 8.2 9.3 10.2 13.1 15.7 7.6 8.7 9.1 9.3 9 8.9 9.2 8.8 Avg. Active Price 341 337 336 336 343 341 333 320 314 310 305 299 289 Avg. Sold Price 200 188 184 195 200 209 213 223 204 191 191 189 202 Avg. Sq. Ft. Price 82 80 79 82 83 87 86 87 82 81 76 77 79 Sold/List Diff. % 94 94 94 94 94 95 94 94 94 94 93 94 93 Sold/Orig LP Diff. % 87 87 81 88 89 90 89 88 88 87 86 86 86 Days on Market 89 90 89 87 86 81 83 79 81 84 84 87 89 Avg CDOM 157 144 109 116 133 122 122 127 130 134 135 137 135 Median 150 141 140 145 152 160 158 157 150 139 138 135 143

 

**FORECLOSURES (SALES PRICE vs ORIGINAL LIST PRICE % -
December 2009 vs December 2010 (NOT reflected in chart above)

• Average CDOM (Cummulative Days on Market)
  (December 2009) - 128 CDOM   vs    (December 2010)  - 107 CDOM
• Sold Price/Original List Price %
  (December 2009) - 86% Sold Price vs Original List Price   vs  (December 2010) - 85% Sold Price vs Original List Price

Change SOLD PRICE/ORIGINAL LIST PRICE %:  v 1.2%

Curnt vs. Prev Month Curnt vs. Prev 13 Months Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago   Dec. 10 Nov. 10 % Change Dec. 10 Dec. 09 % Change Dec. 10 Dec. 09 % Change Avg CDOM 135 137 -1.5% 135 157 -14% 135 157 -14% Sold/Orig LP Diff. % 86 86 0%     86 87 -1.1% 86 87 -1.1%

Date 12/09 1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10 For Sale 35321 35251 36245 37800 38901 39158 40490 40043 39531 38679 37648 36659 35642 Sold 3480 2267 2830 3903 4190 4244 4429 3407 3499 3217 3087 2864 3023 Pended 2887 3261 3715 4957 6113 2960 3525 3644 3673 3475 3352 3381 3130 Months of Inventory (Closed Sales) 10.1 15.5 12.8 9.7 9.3 9.2 9.1 11.8 11.3 12 12.2 12.8 11.8 Months of Inventory (Pended Sales) 12.2 10.8 9.8 7.6 6.4 13.2 11.5 11 10.8 11.1 11.2 10.8 11.4 Absorption Rate (Closed Sales) % 9.9 6.4 7.8 10.3 10.8 10.8 10.9 8.5 8.9 8.3 8.2 7.8 8.5 Absorption Rate (Pended Sales) % 8.2 9.3 10.2 13.1 15.7 7.6 8.7 9.1 9.3 9 8.9 9.2 8.8 Avg. Active Price 341 337 336 336 343 341 333 320 314 310 305 299 289 Avg. Sold Price 200 188 184 195 200 209 213 223 204 191 191 189 202 Avg. Sq. Ft. Price 82 80 79 82 83 87 86 87 82 81 76 77 79 Sold/List Diff. % 94 94 94 94 94 95 94 94 94 94 93 94 93 Sold/Orig LP Diff. % 87 87 81 88 89 90 89 88 88 87 86 86 86 Days on Market 89 90 89 87 86 81 83 79 81 84 84 87 89 Avg CDOM 157 144 109 116 133 122 122 127 130 134 135 137 135 Median 150 141 140 145 152 160 158 157 150 139 138 135 143

**FORECLOSURES (AVERAGE PRICE IN $,000's)  -
December 2009 vs December 2010 (NOT reflected inchart above)

• Average ACTIVE Price:  (December 2009)  $198,000   vs   (December 2010)  $140,000
• Change:  v  29.3%
• Average SOLD Price:  (December 2009)  $153,000   vs   (December 2010)  $143,000
• Change:  v  6.5%
  
  

Curnt vs. Prev Month Curnt vs. Prev 13 Months Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago   Dec. 10 Nov. 10 % Change Dec. 10 Dec. 09 % Change Dec. 10 Dec. 09 % Change Avg. Active Price 289 299 -3.3% 289 341 -15.2% 289 341 -15.2% Avg. Sold Price 202 189 6.9% 202 200 1% 202 200 1%

Date 12/09 1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10 For Sale 35321 35251 36245 37800 38901 39158 40490 40043 39531 38679 37648 36659 35642 Sold 3480 2267 2830 3903 4190 4244 4429 3407 3499 3217 3087 2864 3023 Pended 2887 3261 3715 4957 6113 2960 3525 3644 3673 3475 3352 3381 3130 Months of Inventory (Closed Sales) 10.1 15.5 12.8 9.7 9.3 9.2 9.1 11.8 11.3 12 12.2 12.8 11.8 Months of Inventory (Pended Sales) 12.2 10.8 9.8 7.6 6.4 13.2 11.5 11 10.8 11.1 11.2 10.8 11.4 Absorption Rate (Closed Sales) % 9.9 6.4 7.8 10.3 10.8 10.8 10.9 8.5 8.9 8.3 8.2 7.8 8.5 Absorption Rate (Pended Sales) % 8.2 9.3 10.2 13.1 15.7 7.6 8.7 9.1 9.3 9 8.9 9.2 8.8 Avg. Active Price 341 337 336 336 343 341 333 320 314 310 305 299 289 Avg. Sold Price 200 188 184 195 200 209 213 223 204 191 191 189 202 Avg. Sq. Ft. Price 82 80 79 82 83 87 86 87 82 81 76 77 79 Sold/List Diff. % 94 94 94 94 94 95 94 94 94 94 93 94 93 Sold/Orig LP Diff. % 87 87 81 88 89 90 89 88 88 87 86 86 86 Days on Market 89 90 89 87 86 81 83 79 81 84 84 87 89 Avg CDOM 157 144 109 116 133 122 122 127 130 134 135 137 135 Median 150 141 140 145 152 160 158 157 150 139 138 135 143

 

**FORECLOSURES (MONTHS OF INVENTORY) -
December 2009 vs December 2010 (NOT reflected in chart above)

• December 2009 3.6 months   vs  December 2010   5.1 months
• % Change:  ^ 39.9%

Curnt vs. Prev Month Curnt vs. Prev 13 Months Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago   Dec. 10 Nov. 10 % Change Dec. 10 Dec. 09 % Change Dec. 10 Dec. 09 % Change Months of Inventory (Closed Sales) 11.8 12.8 -7.9% 11.8 10.1 16.2% 11.8 10.1 16.2%

Date 12/09 1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 5/10 6/10 7/10 8/10 9/10 10/10 11/10 12/10 For Sale 35321 35251 36245 37800 38901 39158 40490 40043 39531 38679 37648 36659 35642 Sold 3480 2267 2830 3903 4190 4244 4429 3407 3499 3217 3087 2864 3023 Pended 2887 3261 3715 4957 6113 2960 3525 3644 3673 3475 3352 3381 3130 Months of Inventory (Closed Sales) 10.1 15.5 12.8 9.7 9.3 9.2 9.1 11.8 11.3 12 12.2 12.8 11.8 Months of Inventory (Pended Sales) 12.2 10.8 9.8 7.6 6.4 13.2 11.5 11 10.8 11.1 11.2 10.8 11.4 Absorption Rate (Closed Sales) % 9.9 6.4 7.8 10.3 10.8 10.8 10.9 8.5 8.9 8.3 8.2 7.8 8.5 Absorption Rate (Pended Sales) % 8.2 9.3 10.2 13.1 15.7 7.6 8.7 9.1 9.3 9 8.9 9.2 8.8 Avg. Active Price 341 337 336 336 343 341 333 320 314 310 305 299 289 Avg. Sold Price 200 188 184 195 200 209 213 223 204 191 191 189 202 Avg. Sq. Ft. Price 82 80 79 82 83 87 86 87 82 81 76 77 79 Sold/List Diff. % 94 94 94 94 94 95 94 94 94 94 93 94 93 Sold/Orig LP Diff. % 87 87 81 88 89 90 89 88 88 87 86 86 86 Days on Market 89 90 89 87 86 81 83 79 81 84 84 87 89 Avg CDOM 157 144 109 116 133 122 122 127 130 134 135 137 135 Median 150 141 140 145 152 160 158 157 150 139 138 135 1

 

 

Charts were created by Janice Slaven using Trendgraphix, Inc. Permission is granted through agreement between Prudential GA Realty and Trandgraphix, Inc.

All informaiton is believed to be accurate but is not guaranteed.

 

 

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